First-Home Scheme Simulator
See how Australia’s 5%-deposit, government-guaranteed scheme may front-load entry-level prices and what that means for buy vs rent over time. Toggle the policy, test assumptions, and compare strategies.
- The scheme enables 5% deposits with a government guarantee (no LMI), starting Oct 2025.
- That extra leverage focuses demand under each state’s price cap → a temporary disturbance on top of normal growth, then it fades.
- Timing matters: buying before / just after the start tends to capture more of the uplift; waiting sees less upside.
- Long-run net wealth still depends on interest rates, rent inflation, and market returns.
- Baseline growth uses ~10-year state CAGRs (editable per state).
- Policy uplift is strongest well below caps and decays (~12-month half-life) after start.
- NAV comparisons are liquidation-based and include deposit, fees, mortgage payments, owner costs, selling costs (CGT can be toggled on the calculator).
- Preview below shows multi-state disturbance and a QLD profitability timing example.
Value shown is (policy/baseline − 1). It’s front-loaded and stronger for sub-cap properties; it fades as markets absorb the change.
Calculation includes 5% deposit, ~3% fees, mortgage payments, owner costs, and selling costs. CGT not shown here (toggle on the Calculator).
Compare states on one graph. Toggle the legislation and see: price paths from today, disturbance vs baseline, profit after 12 months for different purchase dates, average-person borrowability by state, long-run buy−rent NAV, and cumulative rent vs interest.
- Sliders are bounded (e.g., entry ≤ cap; rates, fees, rent inflation within sensible ranges).
- Charts auto-rescale and mark the policy start. One chart visible at a time for clarity.
A step-by-step verdict for your numbers: affordability gate (DTI, weekly vs budget), then apples-to-apples net-wealth comparisons of three strategies: Buy & live, Buy & rent out, and Rent & invest.
- Includes deposit, fees, mortgage payments, owner costs, selling costs; CGT optional at sale.
- Price path honours the Oct 2025 start and decays the uplift thereafter.
Sources / Notes (updated 2025)
Notes: this is a stylised model using simplified CGT/owner-cost assumptions and liquidation NAVs for compare-ability. Real outcomes depend on interest rates, rents, supply responses, and individual borrower risk.