Visualiser — All States

All charts start from Sept 2025. Toggle the legislation to see the disturbance vs baseline.

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Charts (one at a time, all states overlaid)

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1 · Price paths

Shows policy-influenced price paths from today for entry-level prices (cap × 80%).

Sources / Notes (updated 2025)

Housing Australia — Expansion starts Oct 1, 2025

From 1 Oct 2025, unlimited places + higher price caps for the Home Guarantee Scheme.

Prime Minister — Media release on earlier start

Govt brings forward the 5% deposit access to Oct 1, 2025; no LMI with govt guarantee.

Office of Impact Analysis — Treasury supplementary analysis

Treasury expects relatively modest market impacts overall; expansion broadens access but disperses demand.

Insurance Council of Australia — Media release (2025)

Warns expansion will raise prices and may hurt lower-income buyers; minimal effect on ownership rates.

Lateral Economics (for ICA) — HGS & LMI report (2025)

Modelling suggests ~3.5–6.6% price rise in 2026 (up to ~9.9% in targeted segments) from the expansion.

ABC News — Expert views (Grattan, e61) on price effects

Experts expect the scheme to push up prices in the short term, even if long-run supply helps.

PropTrack — Home Price Index (Apr 2025)

Prices strengthening in 2025 on lower rates + first-home incentives—i.e., demand-side supports matter.

Notes: this is a stylised model using simplified CGT/owner-cost assumptions and liquidation NAVs for compare-ability. Real outcomes depend on interest rates, rents, supply responses, and individual borrower risk.